Therefore.

More Marriage

As we all know, 11 states passed anti-marriage ballot initiatives last week. Of those, 9 went to Bush (including the swing state of Ohio) and 2 to Kerry. Early in the year, 2 additional states, Missouri and Louisiana, passed similar laws via referendum, and each of them went to Bush last week.

Here's a fun exercise, comparing the percentages of the vote the anti-marriage initiatives received in each of those 13 states. Now all of them won by large majorities, but there are differences in scale. At the same time, let's see if the strength of the win of the anti-marriage initiative correlates with the strength of Bush's performance there as well.

(state, vote share for initiative, vote share for Bush, difference)

OR 57 48 +9
MI 59 48 +11
OH 62 51 +11
UT 66 71 -5
MT 67 59 +8
MO 72 54 +18
ND 73 63 +10
AR 75 54 +21
KY 75 60 +15
OK 76 66 +10
GA 76 58 +18
LA 79 57 +22
MS 86 60 +26

The first thing that jumps out at you is Utah. Fewer people in Utah voted for the ban on gay marriages than voted for George Bush. And the 66% approval rate for the ban, while despicable and disheartening, is midway between the share of the vote that the ban received in a blue state like Oregon and a red state like Kentucky.

Right there in the Mountain West region with Utah is Montana. The smallest gap between anti-marriage approval and George Bush approval other than Utah. And the share of the vote won by the anti-marriage referendum, 67%, is also one of the more moderate numbers.

All red states are not created equal. The deep south is where the anti-marriage coalition is strongest. If Democrats want to remain the party of civil rights, the south is a lost cause. More fertile ground can be found in the Mountain West.